Guide to predictions
How to read the RacingWizard predictions
- The prediction assigns to each horse a score expressed in "lengths". The horse scored 0 is the software favorite of the race.
- Horse rating
- The software score of the horse.
Since the horses are sorted by "total rating", this score could also be positive.
- Jockey and Trainer rating
- The jockey's and trainer's score.
Calculated based on the number of victories, placings and amounts won in the last year. If a jockey or a trainer has not run at least 10 races in the year, he gets a score of 1.50.
- Total rating
- Final evaluation.
Calculated adding the score of the horse, the jockey, the trainer and the form parameter.
- Going and distance statistics
- Each set of three numbers represents: number of races run on the going / distance, victories and placings for the betting purposes. In brackets the withdrawals on the going.
- General, Track, Flat and Jumps
- Overall statistics, on the track and divided by specialty (flat and jumps).
- The last 6 races. 0 means placed beyond 10th position. - symbol represents a stop of at least 90 days.
- The days passed since the last race. In brackets the number of races run in the last 90 days.
- Value ($ or £)
- The average prizes of the last 6 races run.
- This index measures, through a complex formula, the difference between RacingWizard’s rating and the actual placement in the last six races. It ranges from a minimum value of -1,50 to a maximum value of 1,50.
- Going and Distance attitude
- This index evaluates, through a complex formula, the attitude for a specific going or distance.
For turf races there are 2 values: the first one for good/soft going, the second one for heavy going.
For USA races there are always 2 values for turf/good-soft and dirt/fast-slow.
Important remarks on predictions
- Going, distance and draw number
- The total score assigned to each horse consider nor the attitudes to the going and to the distance neither the draw number. It's up to the user to evaluate these factors, often decisive, through the statistics of RacingWizard. Draw number is important but each track has its own characteristics. Often the advantage given by the draw also depends on going.
- Horse back to races
- The software doesn't penalize the horses after a long break. Usually the odds already include the back to races factor.
- Young horses and few performances
- The software is less reliable due to the fact there aren't enough performances. It often happens that a colt with obvious winning chances is undervalued because he won on his debut against poor opponents.
- Horses in the first positions of the prediction with very high odds
- Sometimes the software predicts a horse with a very high odds, especially in English races.
In this specific case consider that predictions are influenced by past performaces as:
- Too much large gaps are adapded.
- Running vs very high quality opponents increase the score in spite of large gap.
- Crossing performaces between flat and jump may effect the result.
So, I suggest extreme caution with these situations.